Wind forecast & weather Kochelsee (Trimini)

Kochelsee

Trimini · today

NoneØ1Gust 6 kn≈ <1 h surfable

measured now · 12:00

Ø0Gust 2 kn

Weather & wind by day

Per day the most likely wind level and its probability – plus weather, temperature, rain and the strongest wind at the best time of day. The coloured bar in each tile shows how the chances split across the levels.

Wind levels (mean wind or gust):
None below 6 kn · Light 6–10 kn mean wind · Windy from 11 kn mean wind or gust 20 kn · Big from 14 kn mean wind or gust 25 kn

Wetterdaten: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0), Modelle u.a. DWD ICON – modifiziert (MOS-Windvorhersage) durch addicted-sports. · Open-Meteo.com

Wind over time

Hourly – mean and gust wind coloured by strength (local scale), plus the forecast of the key drivers. Two days side by side at full width, otherwise stacked; on mobile each day as rows.

Wind forecast & history

Solid lines are the forecast: mean wind (red) and gusts (anthracite), each with its spread. Once available, the measured values are added in the same colours but dashed. Use the arrows (day/month/year) to page through the days and compare forecast against reality. In knots (kn).

↔ swipe to page through the chart

The drivers behind the forecast

The most important inputs of our model for this spot – the same window as the history above. This shows which weather situation is behind the forecast (and, when paging, behind past days).

Foehn

South foehn arises when air pressure south of the Alps is clearly higher than north of them. Shown is the model pressure difference Bolzano−Innsbruck. From about +3 hPa (dashed line) the pressure difference is enough for foehn – whether it actually breaks through to the valley also depends on upper wind and dryness. On real foehn days the daily peak typically reaches about +5 hPa. Between 0 and +3 hPa the southern pressure is usually too weak for foehn; below zero (blue) the higher pressure lies to the north: northerly situation, no foehn. How much of it reaches the lake depends on the spot: at the Kochelsee foehn is one of the main winds, at the Walchensee it breaks through to the water less often – there the wind chance only rises noticeably from about +5 hPa. Other foehn charts reduce pressure to sea level differently and therefore read several hPa higher – the threshold applies to this scale only.

Patscherkofel upper wind

Wind at the main Alpine crest (Patscherkofel, ~800 hPa, about 2 km altitude). Strong south wind there is a prerequisite for foehn in the Kochelsee valley, but not foehn by itself: it also takes the south−north pressure difference (foehn chart) and dry, descending air on the northern side of the Alps. South (S) and plenty of wind = hint of foehn; north (N) = northerly situation, no south foehn.

Upper flow & dryness

Foehn brings dry upper air: if humidity drops clearly and the upper wind (850 hPa, ~1.5 km) blows strongly, that points to a foehn breakthrough to the ground. High humidity = rather no foehn.

Cold air & thunderstorm outflow

The most common summer wind at the Kochelsee is not foehn but cold air: thunderstorms in the mountains south of the lake send their outflow down the valley, and after hot, clear days the cold air drains into the valley by itself at night. On summer cold-air wind days the thunderstorm energy south of the lake reaches about 500 J/kg with some 8 mm of rain there – on calm days next to nothing. These winds often come in the evening and at night, not at midday.

Front (Alpine foreland)

If the wind in the Alpine foreland (~90 km north) turns westerly and increases, a front is approaching – the third wind maker at the Kochelsee besides foehn and cold air.

→ Wie gut ist unsere Vorhersage? (Auswertung gegen echte Messungen)

→ Windtag-Katalog seit 2022 (Ursachen-Einordnung, Modell v0)

→ Föhn-Diagnose: Messung vs. Patscherkofel (welche Tage wir verpassen)

Statistical forecast, no warranty – not an official weather forecast and no substitute for severe-weather warnings. Water sports at your own risk; judge the conditions on site. Terms of use